Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Google Nexus One: Buy the Rumor, Sell the News


"Buy the rumor, sell the news," traders sometimes say. That seems to apply to Google's announcement of the HTC-built "Nexus One" smartphone.

There was so much leaking of news about the device, its distribution model and retail pricing that some of us likely were underwhelmed by the actual launch.

That is no slam on the device, just a comment about expectations.

As sometimes happens with financial assets, sometimes the big run-up occurs only at the "rumor" stage, with the actual confirmed event then provoking a bit of a sell-off. Some of us might note that it has taken a year for Android devices as a whole to reach what appears to be an inflection point in terms of mass buyer interest.

One probably has to credit Verizon Wireless for almost single-handedly creating "buzz" around its Droid, with spillover effects on the rest of the Android market, in all likelihood. But as many have noted, though the Nexus One appears to be a fine device, the business "wrap around" is largely conventional.

In fact, in some ways, Google is being "carrier friendly" in a way Apple has not been. That likely comes as quite a shock to many who thought Google was angling for a bit more disruption. The phone can be bought at full retail and unlocked. That's fine, but few Americans buy their devices that way.

An unlocked device can in principle be used on any GSM network in the United States, but the frequency range specified for the Nexus One means that, if used on the AT&T network, 3G won't work. In practice, that means the Nexus One is a "T-Mobile USA only" device.

If bought with a two-year contract from T-Mobile, the device costs $179. Some people will note that the Nexus One is "first" device that actually can go "head to head" with the iPhone. Others might almost say, "so what?" If all any other competing device can do is replicate the iPhone, many users might simply buy the iPhone.

Progress in the Android handset space continues to be quite rapid, so we'll have to wait and see what happens next. But it would not be surprising if it takes a little time for the Nexus One to have an impact. If the massive Verizon advertising campaign for the Droid means anything, it means promotion and marketing can make all the difference, even for a highly-capable device such as the Nexus One.

As the launch hype fades, we likely will settle in for a year or more of what appears only to be incremental growth for the Nexus One. So far, some of us cannot yet see why the Nexus One is such an advance over the Droid, as some expected. Then again, that's what this next year or so is about: allowing consumers to become familiar with the device and figure out where it fits in the smartphone market.

One might simply argue that the Nexus One is not the iPhone, and neither is the Verizon Droid, meant in a market positioning sense. The Apple iPhone seems to have created a large and sustainable niche of its own. Other devices might emulate the iPhone, but cannot create their own sustainable niches unless they somehow create differentiated audiences, as we might say in the media business.

In other words, Nexus One has to create a fan base that uses and perceives the device to be different from an iPhone, not the same. So will the Droid and all other devices in the high-end smartphone segment of the market. There's only one "iPhone." All other high-end devices must essentially create their own sustainable niches.

Matters are different at the lower end of the device market, where price and functionality make more devices functional substitutes for each other. I don't think that is the case at the high end. We'll see.

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