Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Globally, Mobile IS Telecom

Mary Meeker's "Internet Trends" presentation always contains interesting graphical nuggets. 


This one simply illustrates the extent to which mobility now has become "the telecom business." 


Three years ago, there already were about 4.5 mobile lines in service for every fixed line, and that ratio no doubt has continued to tip in the favor of mobile in the intervening years. 


Observers who casually chide fixed network operators for not investing more heavily in fiber to wherever those firms can make money are not paying attention to the fundamental realities that further investment in fixed network assets will be much more risky than it ever has been in the past, simply because "everybody" knows the revenue and growth are in the mobile networks.


"Stranded assets" are investments that aren't generating any revenue. These days, a good percentage of any further fixed network investment is going to be stranded. That makes companies nervous, and it should. 


A rational executive would invest "mobile first."



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